This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. It’s time to start thinking about contemporary global challenges without using archaic paradigms of the past.Įllis Mallett, Doctoral Researcher in International Relations, University of Surrey The recent turmoil in Washington demonstrates that perhaps the most prominent threat to the United States is closer to home than we think. This is not to say that all fears are unjustified or that all threats foster irrationality, but overreactions to insignificant threats more often than not result in serious strategic consequences. While Iranian actions currently demonstrate a clear breach of the nuclear deal, this is only a reminder of what will likely be the new trajectory if the JCPOA is not restored. The future path of US-Iranian relations will not be a linear process, and obstacles will persist, but a gradual transition to a more cooperative relationship would almost certainly better serve US interests. Iran must also be engaged on transnational issues such as climate change, public health and disease surveillance. It must work collaboratively on areas of mutual interest such as regional crises in Syria and Yemen as well as the threat posed by ISIS. Washington must seek to engage Tehran through rigorous multilateral diplomacy by rejoining the JCPOA in exchange for sanctions relief so as not to damage the relationship or destabilise the region even more. This deeply rooted mantra that Iran poses an existential threat to international security is one that must be firmly hauled out. There is a growing sense that America is seen as the provocateur and they rightly worry that its strident reactions could provide a pretext for unnecessary conflict. Washington risks standing alone in its view that Iran is an irrational “rogue” state and it’s increasingly evident that many of America’s allies – namely those in Europe – are unhappy about unilateral action from the US. It is precisely this that makes Iran a threat to the United States. Tehran continues to launch attacks on American diplomatic missions and Iraqi military bases, as seen in the Iranian-backed militia’s rocket attack on the US embassy compound in Baghdad in December. Not only has Trump’s strategy failed to bring Iran to the negotiating table, the Pentagon’s deployment of nearly 3,000 additional troops to the region as well as an extra squadron of fighter planes to Saudi Arabia puts American personnel at risk. Iranian tactics aim to promote self-reliance – in a nutshell, it’s business as usual. Production of steel, aluminium, copper and electricity has hugely expanded. While this has not protected Iran from external shocks such as oil price fluctuations and sanctions, the country’s economy has made some modest gains. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei, has stated that the solution to western pressure was to develop an “economy of resistance” to lessen the country’s reliance on oil revenues. Rather than render itself bankrupt, Iran has sought to capture America’s attention with new military escalations, managing the threat to oil flow in the Gulf and gradually moving away from the JCPOA by resuming uranium enrichment. Leadership in Tehran is swayed by the idea that regional escalation and nuclear non-compliance are more profitable than compliance and restraint. Iran’s answer to Trump comes in the form of maximum resistance. Unfortunately, this assumption also refused to acknowledge Iran’s ability to resist sanctions measures and retaliate with pressures of its own. Instead, Trump’s maximum pressure campaign aimed to force Iran to the negotiating table as it faced the risk of going bankrupt or capitulating to Washington’s demands. Trump’s withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – better known as the 2015 Iran nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 (the UN Security Counucil’s five permanent members plus China) – rested on the assumption that the agreement “failed to guarantee the safety of the American people from the risks created by the leaders of the Islamic Republic”.
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